Sociological Analysis of Electoral Participation in Iran: From the Reversal of Modernization Theories to Conscious Abstention

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Sociology, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Urmia University

2 Department of Sociology, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Urmia University, Iran

10.22034/ipsa.2026.572
Abstract
This study deals with the sociological analysis of electoral participation in the elections during the period 2015 to 2023. Electoral participation in Iran has had a decreasing and uneven trend over the last three decades; in such a way that the more developed provinces (Tehran, Alborz, Qom) show the lowest participation rates and the less developed provinces (Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, South Khorasan) show the highest participation rates. This pattern is in complete contradiction with the predictions of the classical modernization theory (Lerner, 1964; Bell, 1973), which considered the increase in urbanization, literacy, industrialization, and media influence to be the cause of increased political participation. The present study uses a quantitative comparative method (variable-based) and official secondary data from 31 Iranian provinces in three parliamentary elections (2015, 2019, 2023) to empirically test this paradox. The findings using Pearson correlation coefficient and multivariate regression show that: There is a negative and significant relationship between urbanization rate, literacy rate, internet penetration, industrialization, and media consumption rate with electoral participation. The multivariate regression model shows that these five variables explain 58.5% of the variance in electoral participation in total. To interpret this “inversion” of the modernization theory, the theoretical framework of “conscious abstention from participation” and the theory of “culture industry” are cited. The result is that in the political context of Iran (as an electoral political system), the increase in socio-economic development indicators has not only led to the expansion of electoral participation, but also to “critical awareness” and, “political indifference” .

Keywords

Subjects


Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 09 September 2026

  • Receive Date 31 May 2026
  • Revise Date 17 July 2026
  • Accept Date 24 August 2026