استدلال قیاسی و سیاست گذاری خارجی؛ مطالعه موردی: قیاس های تاریخی مورد استفاده قیاسگران خارجی درباره مسئله هسته ای ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

2 استادیار سیاستگذاری عمومی دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

چکیده

مسئله هسته­ای به عنوان یکی از مسائل مهم سیاست خارجی ایران توسط پژوهشگران این حوزه و بر اساس رویکردهای نظری مختلفی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. استدلال قیاسی یکی از رویکردهای شناختی در تحلیل  سیاست خارجی است که در  تحلیل سیاست خارجی ایران کمتر مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. هدف پژوهش حاضر این است که با استفاده از رویکرد استدلال قیاسی، قیاسهای تاریخی به کار گرفته شده درباره مسئله هسته‌ای ایران بین سال­های 2016-2003 را بررسی کرده و تلاش کرده نشان دهد چگونه مقامات دولتی و تحلیلگران خارج از ایران، در مواجهه‌ با رویداد جاری مسئله هسته‌ای ایران از گذر قیاس این رویداد با رویدادهای تاریخی، نبردی قیاسی را شکل داده‌اند. یافته‌های پژوهش بیانگر آن است که «قیاس مونیخ»، «قیاس یالتا»، «قیاس نیکسون-چین کمونیست»، «قیاس اتحاد شوروی»، «قیاس ریکیاویک» و «قیاس کره شمالی»، قیاس­هایی هستند که قیاسگران با بهره­گیری از آنها، استدلال‌های خود را در مواجهه با موقعیت جاری «مسئله هسته‌ای ایران» مبنی بر موافقت یا مخالفت با مذاکرات هسته ای، بیان و از این طریق کوشیده­اند به تبیین یا  توجیه سیاست های خود و اقناع افکار عمومی بپردازند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

ANALOGICAL REASONING AND FOREIGN POLICY-MAKING (Case study: The Historical Analogies used by Foreign Analogizers about Iran's Nuclear Issue)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sedighe Sheikhzadeh Joshani 1
  • yahya kamali 2

1 Assistant Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Theology, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman

2 استادیار سیاستگذاری عمومی دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

چکیده [English]

The nuclear issue as one of the important issues of foreign policy of Iran has been studied by researchers of this field based on various theoretical approaches. Analogical reasoning is one of the cognitive approaches in the analysis of foreign policy that has been neglected in Iran's foreign policy analysis. This research using analogical reasoning study aims to identify the historical analogies employed on the Iranian nuclear issue during the years 2003-2016 and tries to show that how some senior government officials and analysts outside Iran have shaped some analogical battle in dealing with the Iran's nuclear issue in terms of comparing this event with some other historical events. Research findings suggest that "The Munich Analogy", "The Yalta Analogy", "The Soviet Union Analogy", "The Nixon-Red/China Analogy", "The Reykjavik Analogy" and "The North Korea Analogy" are analogies that government officials and analysts have used them to express their arguments about the current situation of "Iran's nuclear issue" and state their reasons for agreeing or disagreeing with the nuclear negotiations and through this, they have tried to justify their policies and persuade public opinion.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cognitive Approach
  • Analogical Reasoning
  • Historical Analogy
  • Foreign Policy-Making
  • Iran's Nuclear Issue
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  • تاریخ دریافت: 21 مرداد 1397
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 07 مهر 1397
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 19 آبان 1397