نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

• محسن شفیعی سیف آبادی

گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه اردکان، اردکان، ایران

چکیده

هدف اصلی مقاله حاضر بررسی علل کاهش میزان مشارکت مردمی در انتخابات ریاست جمهوری 1400 و آینده رفتار انتخاباتی مردم ایران بر مبنای تئوری والتر میلبراث و نظریه پیتر شوارتز است. سوال اصلی نیز عبارت است از اینکه «علل کاهش میزان مشارکت‌مردم ایران در انتخابات ریاست جمهوری 1400 به نسبت ادوار گذشته چیست و آینده رفتار انتخاباتی شهروندان ایرانی چگونه خواهد بود؟» نتایج حاصل از تحقیق که با روشی توصیفی-تحلیلی بدست آمده است نشان می‌دهد که با توجه به سه مولفه «پایگاه اجتماعی»، «محرک‌های محیطی» و «ویژگی‌های شخصیتی»، شهروندان ایرانی در کنار نبود احزاب و سازمان‌های بسترساز مشارکت سیاسی، و ویژگی‌های هیجانی‌ای که بوسیله تبلیغات و رسانه‌های اپوزیسیون داخلی و خارجی مانع حضور حداکثری آنها شده بود، از مشکلات مهم و تأثیرگذاری چون تورم، شکاف طبقاتی، بیکاری و افزایش مشکلات اقتصادی-معیشتی به شکل معنا‌داری ناراضی بودند. بر مبنای تئوری شوارتز نیز برای آینده رفتار انتخاباتی شهروندان ایرانی چهار سناریو در قالب سه نوع آینده قابل تصور است که عبارتند از: آینده ارجح یا مطلوب: کاهش معنادار مشکلات اقتصادی و معیشتی در آینده و بهبود مشارکت انتخاباتی؛ آینده محتمل: 1-شکست تلاش‌های اقتصادی و اجتماعی دولت و در نتیجه کاهش میزان مشارکت انتخاباتی و افزایش ناامیدی؛ 2- افزایش تنش‌های منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی، روی‌آوری به اقتصاد مقاومتی، عدم رفع مشکلات مردمی در کوتاه مدت و در نتیجه عدم رونق مشارکت انتخاباتی مردم در آینده و آینده ممکن: 1-تبدیل تدریجی عدم مشارکت انتخاباتی به عادت واره

کلیدواژه‌ها

• آینده پژوهی
• سناریونویسی
• مشارکت انتخاباتی
• ایران
• میلبراث
• شوارتز

عنوان مقاله [English]

Reasons for the decrease in public participation in the 1400 elections and the future of citizens' electoral behavior (Based on Milbrath's theory of political participation and Schwartz's theory of Scenario writing)

نویسنده [English]

• mohsen Shafiee Seifabadi

Department of Political Science, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Ardakan University, Ardakan, Yazd

چکیده [English]

Introduction
It seems that the 1400 presidential election can be considered a turning point in the path of the Islamic Republic and an important change in the electoral participation process. The results of the 13th presidential election in Iran were announced in a situation where official statistics indicate that this period, in terms of electoral investment, was one of the least successful election periods in the history of the Islamic Republic .During this period, Seyyed Ebrahim Ra'isi was elected by the people as the eighth president of Iran by winning a majority of votes 48.8% of those who participate in the elections participate. Therefore, in terms of quantity, this popular turnout is the lowest social participation in all periods of the Iranian presidential election since the beginning of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this regard, in order to answer the question "What are the reasons for the decrease in the participation of the Iranian people in the 1400 presidential elections compared to previous periods and what will be the future of the electoral behavior of Iranian citizens?", This study tries to Milbrath's theoretical framework, the most important causes of this event and the popular approach should be examined and based on Schwartz's theoretical approach, the future of people's electoral behavior should be designed in the form of scenarios. Obviously, the non-participation of the people in the 1400 elections can include many factors such as health issues and the Corona crisis, political issues such as the disapproval of some representatives and other cultural and social categories. However, this research, knowing the range of reasons presented in many scientific circles, in order to commit to Milbrath's theoretical framework, is only in line with his three desired levels, namely "social status", "environmental stimuli" and "characteristics". "Personality" will address the reasons for the decline in electoral participation.
Methodology
Methodologically, the present study is descriptive-analytical with the approach of "matching theory with case" and "theory-case test". Collection of information and data required in this research in a documentary manner (library and receipt), use of works, research and articles available on the Internet and news agencies and scientific reports is valid. This research is practical in terms of purpose, because with the results obtained through it, while gaining knowledge of the roots of meaningful behavior of the Iranian people in the 1400 presidential election, it can be used to meet the basic needs, expectations and demands of citizens. And finally used to improve electoral participation.
Result and discussion
The findings of the present study in order to explain the reasons for the decrease in popular participation in the 1400 presidential elections and the future of citizens' electoral behavior can be considered in two parts, which are: And 2- Scenarios leading to the electoral behavior of the Iranian people based on Schwartz's theory. In explaining political participation, Milbrath examines various factors in the form of three environmental stimuli, social status and personality. According to him, categories such as belonging to an organization is one of the main factors in involving citizens in political activities and access to information. Obviously, one of the most important organizations in the current transition and developed countries are the parties, while with a history of more than forty years in the Republic of Iran, the parties still have many problems in nurturing and producing political people.According to Milbrath, personality categories such as sociality and extroversion are effective in motivating citizens to enter politics. This is while one of the most important personality traits of the Iranian people is unpredictability. On the other hand, when these people are on the eve of the intense news of the internal and external opposition, they are largely passive. But another factor that Milbrath points to, and more than any other category in the current situation, is tangible for the Iranian people; Social status is based on indicators such as income, social status and class status. It seems that high inflation, unemployment of citizens, especially university graduates, reduction of welfare and increase of living problems; It has increased dissatisfaction with the current situation and, in addition to having a direct impact on increasing the number of invalid ballots, has also had an impact on popular electoral participation in general. Over the past decade, the existence of an unfavorable and passive macroeconomic program and strategy in large and pervasive areas such as industry, mining, housing, and in general tangible production and uncertainty in the areas of livelihood, trade and business, the results of its poor performance. Has put it well in front of the citizens. The mentioned management results clearly and tangibly show the depth of unfavorableness and economic catastrophe that different angles of Iran's economy, from agriculture to mines, from oil to downstream industries, from inflation to unemployment, from stock exchange to exchange rate, from employment crisis to services to It has exposed deep inequalities between different classes of people. Thus, as the suffering of the people increased among the various strata of society, it was increasingly felt that the electoral process, and ultimately the rotation of the elites, would end the necessary capacity to improve their lives or address the country's major problems, such as strengthening economic spheres. It does not have a political stalemate and empowerment of civil society to fight corruption and inequality. With these interpretations based on Schwartz's theory, the thirteenth government and its supporters today see two solutions to deal with sanctions and domestic problems. One way is to negotiate and reduce or lift sanctions. According to the new government, experience has shown that the West wants not just a nuclear issue, they do not accept the ideology, regional policy and even the governing structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran, therefore, the 13th government is unlikely to succeed in negotiating with Western governments. But the second way is to use domestic capacities and forces to produce sanctioned goods and reduce and neutralize the effects of sanctions. Of course, this is the path that the thirteenth government will choose, and of course, if a binding and fair agreement with the European governments is possible, it will also consider negotiating the lifting of sanctions. Obviously, the government's success in these areas will return the electoral passion, especially for the next presidential election, to the Iranian youth and citizens. Surveys and statistical analyzes show that people are more dissatisfied with the economic dimension and their immediate demand to solve this problem .It is clear, then, that the closer the thirteenth government gets to this goal, the more likely it is to succeed in alleviating political boredom and frustration. This is while today the government sees a difficult way and many obstacles in front of solving the problems of the citizens; Obviously, if we do not succeed, we should not expect the enthusiastic presence of the people in the field of political participation in the future.
Conclusion
The results of the research, which has been obtained by descriptive-analytical method, show that according to the three components of "social status", "environmental stimuli" and "personality traits", Iranian citizens, in addition to the lack of parties and organizations laying the groundwork for participation. The political, and emotional features that had prevented their maximum presence through domestic and foreign opposition propaganda and media were significantly dissatisfied with important and influential problems such as inflation, class divisions, unemployment, and increasing economic and livelihood problems.The combination of these factors both fueled citizens' frustration with the current situation and reduced the effectiveness of the presidential election and the rotation of elites in solving problems in their eyes. According to Schwartz's theory, for the future of the electoral behavior of Iranian citizens, four scenarios can be imagined in the form of three types of future: Possible future: 1. The failure of the government's economic and social efforts, resulting in reduced electoral participation and increased frustration; 2- Increasing regional and international tensions, turning to resistance economy, not solving popular problems in the short term and as a result, lack of prosperity of people's electoral participation in the future and possible future: 1- Gradual transformation of non-electoral participation into habit.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Futurology
• Scenario Writing
• Electoral Participation
• Iran
• Milbrath
• Schwartz