The transformation in the media ecosystem and the acceleration of technological developments highlight the relationship between media governance and political legitimacy. Using a futures research approach and scenario writing method, the present study examines the effects of four macro scenarios: 1- participatory media governance, 2- overcoming the narrative crisis, 3- media securitization, and 4- technological leap and data-driven governance on Iran’s political legitimacy. Main hypothesis: The media governance model (from control-oriented to participatory-oriented) and the way in which new technologies are used shape the type of political legitimacy (stable, efficient, or eroded).
Research findings: In the desired scenario of “participatory media governance,” transparency, production of credible content, and community participation in media policymaking increase public trust and strengthen legitimacy. The “narrative crisis” scenario represents a future in which the dissonance between official and unofficial media and the influence of foreign media lead to the erosion of legitimacy and the deepening of the state-society gap. The “media securitization” scenario also represents a minimal and survivalist legitimacy that reduces the media from the function of trust-building to crisis management. The “technological leap” scenario shows that the development of artificial intelligence infrastructure and data-driven governance can strengthen intelligent narrative creation and information transparency.
Conclusion: The desirable scenarios (participatory and responsible technological leap) that are based on transparency, accountability, and interaction, although facing transition difficulties, are sustainable paths to reproducing national trust and resilience. In contrast, scenarios based on control or passivity lead to the systematic erosion of social capital and increased fragility.